Category Archives: States of Uncertainty

Oil price scenario in the Middle East

What would another dip in oil prices mean for Middle Eastern oil producers? by Sorana Parvulescu. We maintain (50% likelihood) that prices are likely to remain at around USD 50 to USD 55 per barrel for at least the next two years until the market has absorbed surplus inventories. This is largely based on our…
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China: The obscurity of power

The obscurity of power: Xi Jinping’s China, by Andrew Gilholm.  Amid the din of presidential change in the world’s established superpower, a looming leadership transition in its emerging superpower has gone little noticed. The Communist Party of China (CPC) will hold its five-yearly national congress in late 2017, marking the end of President Xi Jinping’s…
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Iraq after Mosul

Iraq after Mosul: Old divisions renewed, by Glen Ransom. The recapture of Mosul from Islamic State (IS) marks a turning point in the campaign to shatter its grasp on Iraq. But re-establishing government authority over the city will trigger a new and potentially more destabilising phase of political competition and communal conflict in 2017. Divisions…
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Fighting corruption in Central and Eastern Europe

Fighting corruption in Central and Eastern Europe by Cvete Koneska. 2017 marks the tenth anniversary of Bulgaria and Romania joining the EU. Their accession marked the end of the wave of eastern EU enlargement that started in 2004 and saw ten former communist countries join the bloc. Many things have changed in the past decade…
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