Category Archives: States of Uncertainty

China: The obscurity of power

The obscurity of power: Xi Jinping’s China, by Andrew Gilholm.  Amid the din of presidential change in the world’s established superpower, a looming leadership transition in its emerging superpower has gone little noticed. The Communist Party of China (CPC) will hold its five-yearly national congress in late 2017, marking the end of President Xi Jinping’s…
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Iraq after Mosul

Iraq after Mosul: Old divisions renewed, by Glen Ransom. The recapture of Mosul from Islamic State (IS) marks a turning point in the campaign to shatter its grasp on Iraq. But re-establishing government authority over the city will trigger a new and potentially more destabilising phase of political competition and communal conflict in 2017. Divisions…
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Thailand’s troubled transition

Thailand: A troubled change of power, by Harrison Cheng. Political instability in Thailand will increase in 2017 on the back of a royal transition and general elections scheduled late in the year. The passing of revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej in October 2016 will complicate the operating environment for years to come. The security environment and…
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